U.S. Economic Growth Slows Amid Tariff Pressures: A 2025 Outlook

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📉 U.S. Economic Growth Slows Amid Tariff Pressures: A 2025 Outlook As 2025 unfolds, the U.S. economy is showing signs of strain amid a global slowdown and heightened trade barriers. Here's a detailed look at the latest forecasts and implications based on insights from the OECD, Federal Reserve, and key market indicators . 📊 1. U.S. Growth Forecast Downgraded by OECD The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% , down from 2.8% in 2024 . The forecast for 2026 remains muted at 1.5% , reflecting persistent uncertainty driven by: Elevated trade barriers Reduced consumer spending power Sluggish business investment 💸 2. Tariffs Fueling Inflation & Trade Costs The average U.S. tariff rate has climbed to 15.4% , the highest level since 1938 . These tariffs have raised import costs, which are now being passed on to consumers: Projected consumer price inflation is expected to rise to...
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The trade cycle and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GNP (Gross National Product)

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The trade cycle, also known as the business cycle, refers to the natural fluctuation of economic activity in a country over time. It is typically characterized by four stages:

1.Expansion: During the expansion phase, economic activity is increasing, and there is an increase in the production of goods and services, higher employment rates, and rising incomes. This phase is characterized by increased business investment, consumer spending, and positive economic growth.

2.Peak: The peak phase marks the end of the expansion phase and the beginning of a slowdown. During this phase, economic activity reaches its highest point, and there is little room for further growth. Inflationary pressures may start to appear, and interest rates may begin to rise.

3.Contraction: The contraction phase, also known as the recession, is characterized by a slowdown in economic activity, a decrease in production and employment rates, and falling incomes. Business investment and consumer spending decline, leading to negative economic growth and rising unemployment rates.

4.Trough: The trough phase marks the end of the contraction phase and the beginning of a recovery. During this phase, economic activity begins to pick up, and there is an increase in production and employment rates. Consumer and business confidence start to return, leading to positive economic growth.



GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and GNP (Gross National Product) are both measures of a country's economic output, but they differ in how they are calculated and what they measure.


GDP measures the total value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders, regardless of who owns the factors of production. This includes goods and services produced by both domestic and foreign firms within the country's territory. In other words, GDP measures the economic output generated within a country.

GNP, on the other hand, measures the total value of all goods and services produced by a country's residents, regardless of where they are located. This includes goods and services produced by domestic firms operating abroad, and it excludes goods and services produced by foreign firms operating within the country's territory. In other words, GNP measures the economic output generated by a country's residents, whether they are located within the country or abroad.

To calculate GNP, one must add up the total income earned by a country's residents, including income earned from domestic production and income earned from abroad. GDP, on the other hand, is calculated by adding up the value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders, regardless of who owns the factors of production.

In summary, the main difference between GDP and GNP is that GDP measures the economic output generated within a country's borders, while GNP measures the economic output generated by a country's residents, regardless of their location.

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