U.S. Economic Growth Slows Amid Tariff Pressures: A 2025 Outlook

πŸ“‰ U.S. Economic Growth Slows Amid Tariff Pressures: A 2025 Outlook As 2025 unfolds, the U.S. economy is showing signs of strain amid a global slowdown and heightened trade barriers. Here's a detailed look at the latest forecasts and implications based on insights from the OECD, Federal Reserve, and key market indicators . πŸ“Š 1. U.S. Growth Forecast Downgraded by OECD The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% , down from 2.8% in 2024 . The forecast for 2026 remains muted at 1.5% , reflecting persistent uncertainty driven by: Elevated trade barriers Reduced consumer spending power Sluggish business investment πŸ’Έ 2. Tariffs Fueling Inflation & Trade Costs The average U.S. tariff rate has climbed to 15.4% , the highest level since 1938 . These tariffs have raised import costs, which are now being passed on to consumers: Projected consumer price inflation is expected to rise to...

Inflation and its types

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services in an economy is increasing over time. It is a sustained increase in the price level of goods and services in an economy, which leads to a decrease in the purchasing power of money. When inflation is high, the same amount of money can buy fewer goods and services than before, leading to a decrease in the standard of living.

There are different types of inflation, based on the cause of the price increase:

1.Demand-Pull Inflation: This type of inflation occurs when there is an increase in demand for goods and services, but the supply remains constant. When demand exceeds supply, businesses can increase prices to take advantage of the increased demand. This type of inflation is typically associated with periods of economic growth and low unemployment.


2.Cost-Push Inflation: Cost-push inflation occurs when there is an increase in the cost of production, such as an increase in the cost of labor, raw materials, or energy. When production costs increase, businesses must raise prices to maintain their profit margins. This type of inflation can be caused by factors such as natural disasters, trade disruptions, or government regulations.


3.Built-In Inflation: Built-in inflation occurs when inflationary expectations become embedded in the economy. For example, if workers expect prices to rise, they may demand higher wages, which can increase production costs and lead to higher prices. Similarly, if businesses expect inflation to continue, they may raise prices to protect their profits.


Hyperinflation: Hyperinflation is an extreme form of inflation, where prices increase at a very high rate, typically more than 50% per month. Hyperinflation is usually caused by a rapid increase in the money supply, which can lead to a loss of confidence in the currency, and a collapse in the economy.

In summary, inflation is a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services in an economy. The different types of inflation are characterized by the underlying cause of the price increase, such as an increase in demand, an increase in production costs, or inflationary expectations.

Differences between the three types of inflation


FactorDemand-Pull InflationCost-Push InflationBuilt-In Inflation
Cause of InflationIncrease in demand for goods and servicesIncrease in the cost of production, such as labor, raw materials, or energyInflationary expectations become embedded in the economy
Price MovementPrices rise due to an increase in demand, causing a rightward shift in the aggregate demand curvePrices rise due to an increase in production costs, causing a leftward shift in the aggregate supply curvePrices rise due to inflationary expectations and adaptive behavior, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy
Effect on OutputCan lead to an increase in output and employment, as businesses increase production to meet higher demandCan lead to a decrease in output and employment, as higher production costs may cause businesses to reduce productionCan lead to a decrease in output and employment, as inflationary expectations can lead to higher wages and production costs
Effect on EmploymentCan lead to an increase in employment as businesses increase production and hire workersCan lead to a decrease in employment as businesses reduce production and lay off workersCan lead to a decrease in employment as higher wages and production costs reduce the incentive for businesses to hire
ExampleEconomic boom with low unemploymentOil price shocks causing higher production costsWage-price spiral due to expectations of higher inflation

In summary, demand-pull inflation is caused by an increase in demand for goods and services, cost-push inflation is caused by an increase in production costs, and built-in inflation is caused by inflationary expectations becoming embedded in the economy. The price movements, effects on output and employment, and examples of each type of inflation differ accordingly.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

The law of diminishing returns states

Highlights – June 2025

Sustaining Momentum: Insights into India's Economic Growth Trajectory